Probability of Success

Yesterday a client of mine called, telling me that he was thinking about the application of the technology we are developing now to a new device which will be one of the key components of the next-generation automobile. He just said. "I would like to know your opinion. Do you think it possible...? I mean... What do you think... is the...hmm... probability of success?"
I always get perplexed at such kind of questions. "Probability of success." I cannot but think that he doesn't understand what a fundamental research is like. I repeated the same answer that I have made perhaps 26 times. "It depends."
His excitement quickly turned to a dismay. "ooh" He sighed. He said "Of course it depends. But could you give me even a rough idea how feasible my plan is? 10 %? 30%"
"I think the idea itself is pretty interesting for me. This is all I can say about it. I really can't say how probable. "
"I think I understand what you mean. But you know, I myself have to explain this idea to the management. We need to be funded."
This is what is all about. He understands what a fundamental research is like. But he has to secure the budget. In order to get money he has a plausible probability expressed in figures to convince the hardheaded management. So he wants to draw a figure from me. But if he really understands what I mean why does he not make up by himself any figure that meets his convenience and tell it to his management? Why bother asking me?
It's not difficult to guess. He does not want to be the one who is wrong when things goes negative. He wants to say when things go bad,"the failure could not be helped because even a specialist(me) could not see through."
I asked him. "Do you think 10 % is a good figure to convince your management?"
"No, I don't think so."
"Then what figure do you think is good enough?"
"hmmm. At least.... 60%"
"Ok, I think the probability happens to be 60 %. Tell your management."
"Thank you."
He hung up, his voice returning to the original tone of excitement.